Aktuelle Publikationen
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(2020): Kaufmännische Ausbildungsberufe im Wandel : Erfahrungen mit der Neuordnung im deutschen dualen Ausbildungssystem GREIMEL-FUHRMANN, Bettina, ed., Richard FORTMÜLLER, ed.. Wirtschaftsdidaktik - den Bildungshorizont durch Berufs- und Allgemeinbildung erweitern : Festschrift für Josef Aff. Wien: Facultas, 2020, pp. 11-27. ISBN 978-3-7089-2038-2
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One of the most important controversies in health economics concerns the question whether the imminent aging of the population in most OECD countries will place an additional burden on the tax payers who finance public health care systems. Proponents of the “red-herring hypothesis” argue that this is not the case because most of the correlation of age and health care expenditures (HCE) is due to the fact that the mortality rate rises with age and HCE rise steeply in the last years before death. The evidence regarding this hypothesis is, however, mixed. Our contribution to this debate is mainly methodological: We argue that the relationship of age, time to death (TTD) and HCE should be estimated non-parametrically. Using a large panel data set from the German Statutory Health Insurance, we first show that the parametric approach overestimates the expenditures of the high age classes and thus overstates the increase of future HCE due to aging. Secondly, we show that the non-parametric approach is particularly useful to answer the question whether age still has an impact on HCE once TTD is taken into account and find that it is clearly the case. This relationship is even more pronounced for long-term care expenditures (LTCE). We then show that the age-expenditure relationship is not stable over time: for many age classes, HCE in the last year of life grow considerably faster than HCE of survivors. We explore the impact of these findings on the simulation of future HCE and find that population aging will in fact contribute to rising HCE in the coming decades. We also find that the impact of different population projections provided by the statistical offices has a greater impact on these simulations than previously acknowledged. However, the total impact of demographics on future HCE and LTCE is dwarfed by the exogenous time trend, which is due to medical progress and increasing generosity of public LTC insurance.
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Leaks are pervasive in politics. Hence, many committees that nominally operate under secrecy de facto operate under the threat that information might be passed on to outsiders. We study theoretically and experimentally how this possibility affects the behavior of committee members and the decision-making accuracy. Our theoretical analysis generates two major predictions. First, a committee operating under the threat of leaks is equivalent to a formally transparent committee in terms of the probabilities of project implementation as well as welfare (despite differences in individual voting behavior). Second, the threat of leaks causes a committee to recommend rejection of a project whenever precise information has been shared among committee members. As a consequence, a status-quo bias arises. Our laboratory results confirm these predictions despite subjects communicating less strategically than predicted.
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(2020): Trainingsevaluation WIRTZ, Markus Antonius, ed.. Dorsch - Lexikon der Psychologie. 19., überarbeitete Auflage. Bern: Hogrefe, 2020, pp. 1806. ISBN 978-3-456-85914-9
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We investigate whether estimates of the effect of aid on growth are influenced by authors' careers. We collect data on the careers of 190 authors and apply meta-regression analysis to investigate the impact of authors' age and tenure status on the reported magnitude of aid effectiveness, and on the degree of selectivity in which results are reported. On average, authors without tenure report much larger effects and they also exhibit substantial publication selection bias. These findings are consistent with differences in publication incentives between tenured and non-tenured authors. Older non-tenured researchers report the most biased findings in this literature. One explanation for this latter result is these authors' links with aid agencies.
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(2020): Empirical methods in the economics of education BRADLEY, Steve, ed., Colin GREEN, ed.. The Economics of Education : a Comprehensive Overview. 2. Auflage. London: Elsevier, 2020, pp. 3-20. ISBN 978-0-12-815391-8. Available under: doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-815391-8.00001-X
Empirical research in the economics of education often addresses causal questions. Does an educational policy or practice cause students' test scores to improve? Does more schooling lead to higher earnings? This article surveys the methods that economists have increasingly used over the past two decades to distinguish accidental association from causation. The methods include research designs that exploit explicit randomization as well as quasi-experimental identification strategies based on observational data. All methods are illustrated with a range of selected example applications from the economics of education.
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This thesis presents three essays in the field of empirical and quantitative macroeconomics. The essays focus on the macroeconomic consequences of credit-market imperfections. The first chapter is about the dynamics of the sovereign credit, while the rest two chapters are on the corporate/business credit. In terms of methodologies, panel-data approaches are applied in both Chapter 1 and Chapter 2. Structural quantitative methods, on the other hand, are used in Chapter 1 and Chapter 3.
In Chapter 1, which is joint work with Almuth Scholl, we study the dynamic interaction between sovereign default risk, taxation, and the underground economy. The study is motivated by the observation that in the wake of sovereign debt crises, many countries have adopted fiscal consolidation policies in order to reduce public debt and to restore creditworthiness. However, particularly in crisis-prone countries, substantial underground activities undermine tax enforcement. We first conduct an empirical analysis. For a large sample of countries, we find that the size of the underground economy is positively correlated with sovereign debt and interest spreads. We rationalize these empirical regularities within a quantitative model of sovereign default that explicitly accounts for underground activities. We study optimal fiscal policy in the presence of limited tax enforcement and default risk using the concept of Markov-perfect equilibria, in which the government moves first and the households form expectations about future public policies. In a quantitative exercise, we analyze the properties of optimal public policies and the private sector's responses and study the dynamics of a default event with particular focus on the underground sector. Our simulation results reveal that the theoretical framework replicates the empirical regularities very well. In particular, our model predicts that the size of the underground economy is positively correlated with sovereign debt and interest spreads. We show that during a debt crises, the dynamic interaction between sovereign default risk and the underground economy creates a vicious circle: Higher sovereign risk premia tighten the endogenous borrowing constraint and force the government to raise taxes. Tax hikes, however, induce the private sector to invest less and to evade taxes by producing in the underground sector. In turn, falling tax revenues force the government to either implement further tax hikes or to default. Eventually, rasing taxes becomes too costly and the government finds it optimal to default Our quantitative findings suggest that the underground economy fosters sovereign default risk and deepens debt crises.
In the second chapter, we ask the following question: Has the financial sector become more efficient over time? It is natural to believe that the financial efficiency has improved, at least in an advanced economy such as the United States. However, some authors, such as Philippon (2015) and Bazot (2018), show that it might not be the case. This chapter revisits the estimation of financial efficiency. In this chapter, we propose a regression method to assess the time trend in the firm's intermediation cost of external credit. We define the intermediation cost as the part of the unit cost of the external credit finance that is unrelated to the risk premium. We find that the intermediation cost has decreased significantly over the period of 1983Q1-2007Q4, which has substantially reduced firm's borrowing cost. On average, the fall in the intermediation cost leads to a reduction by 0.57-0.71 percentage point in the ratio of interest expense over revenue, and a decrease by 0.78-0.79 percentage point in the ratio of interest expense over book value of debt. The estimation results are robust against different sample components and against alternative measures of the risk-free rate and inflation. The reduction in the intermediation cost implies that the financial efficiency has improved in the US corporate credit market. We also assess the cross-sectional average risk premium and unit cost over the same period of time, but find mixed results.
Chapter 3 is motivated by the empirical evidence in Chapter 2, and explores the macroeconomic implications of such decrease in the intermediation cost. The chapter is motivated by the fact that over the past decades, there has been a dramatic credit boom in the United States, coupled with decreasing asset returns and rising inequality. It analyzes whether the decreasing intermediation cost of borrowing is an explanation for these developments. We first construct a simple two-period model, followed by a fully dynamic model based on Angeletos (2007), which we apply to the United States in a quantitative exercise. We find that the macroeconomic effects of the fall in intermediation costs are amplified by two feedback loops: one is between the capital market and the credit market, and another is between the capital-credit market and the wealth distribution. We show that, due to lower intermediation costs, the credit market experiences a "simultaneous" expansion of credit demand and credit supply. As a result, the real risk-free interest rate barely changes. The capital market also expands, leading to a decrease in the returns on capital. The feedback loops exaggerate the capital-income risk and increase the average returns on investment among leveraged investors, driving up the overall wealth and income inequality. In a quantitative exercise, we find that much of the rise in the top-end wealth inequality during 1980-2007 could be explained by the reduction in the intermediation costs. In terms of welfare, we find that the welfare decreases for the households in the bottom-90% wealth group, while it improves for households in other groups. -
Die Analyse der Erklärung, Ausprägungen und Wirkungen ökonomischer Kompetenzen stellt ein zentrales Forschungsgebiet der Wirtschaftspädagogik dar. Dabei werden ökonomische Kompetenzen häufig als wichtige Basiskompetenz verstanden, über die jeder Mensch in einer modernen Gesellschaft verfügen sollte, um in dieser als mündige/r (Wirtschafts-)Bürgerin und (Wirtschafts-)Bürger agieren zu können. Übergeordnet lässt sich dieses Forschungsgebiet unter anderem auch in die in der Wirtschaftspädagogik seit vielen Jahrzehnten diskutierte Frage nach dem Stellenwert einer ökonomischen Bildung als Teil schulischer (Allgemein-)Bildung einbetten. In diesem Zusammenhang existieren zahlreiche Studien, die sich jedoch vor allem auf die Messung und Modellierung ökonomischer Kompetenzen beschränken. Aussagen sowohl über die Erklärung als auch über die Wirkungen ökonomischer Kompetenzen sind kaum empirisch fundiert. Ergebnisse zeigen insbesondere für Lernende der Sekundarstufe II, die im Anschluss an die Schulzeit eine zumeist allgemeine Hochschulzugangsberechtigung erwerben, starke Defizite im Bereich des ökonomischen Wissens. Dennoch bilden die Wirtschaftswissenschaften die im Hochschulsektor meistgewählte Fächergruppe. Verweise, dass sich der defizitäre Wissensstand auch auf den erfolgreichen Übergang in ein wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium niederschlägt, liefern zumindest Daten statistischer Ämter sowie Studien, die auch bei dieser Fächergruppe häufig über mangelnde Studienleistungen, geringe Studienzufriedenheit, Studiengangwechsel und Studienabbrüche berichten. Vor diesem Hintergrund geht es in der vorliegenden Arbeit um die Frage, ob und inwieweit die Förderung ökonomischer Kompetenzen den Übergang von der Schule in ein wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium begünstigt. Das Ziel der Arbeit liegt somit in der Untersuchung der Zusammenhangskette „Ökonomische Kompetenzen – Studienaspiration – Studienfachwahl – Studienerfolg“. Um diese Zusammenhangskette theoretisch abzubilden, wird ein übergeordnetes Rahmenmodell entwickelt, welches Erwartungs-Wert-theoretische Modelle mit Studienerfolgsmodellen verschränkt. Die Datengrundlage bildet eine Längsschnittstichprobe mit n = 2.311 Maturandinnen und Maturanden der Deutschschweiz mit zwei Messzeitpunkten. Der erste Messzeitpunkt erfolgte zum Schuljahresende im Frühjahr/Sommer 2011 und der zweite Messzeitpunkt etwa fünf Jahre später. Während für den ersten Messzeitpunkt der Fokus auf der Messung ökonomischer und weiterer Kompetenzen liegt, geht es im zweiten Messzeitpunkt um die Erfassung der Bildungsverläufe (insb. der Studienfachwahlen) sowie die Erfassung des Studienerfolgs. Zur Messung der fachlich-kognitiven Leistungsdispositionen in Wirtschaft, Mathematik und Deutsch sowie der kognitiven Grundfähigkeiten kamen Leistungstests zum Einsatz. Bezogen auf das ökonomische Wissen und Können wurde dabei kein curricularer Test verwendet. Stattdessen wurden Inhalte abgefragt, die sich auf gesellschaftlich relevantes Wirtschaftswissen beschränken. Dieser Ansatz folgt der Idee einer/eines gebildeten bzw. mündigen Wirtschaftsbürgerin/-bürgers. Auf dieser Grundlage wurden neben dem ökonomischen Wissen und Können zudem auch das Interesse, die Motivation, die Einstellung und die Werthaltung in Wirtschaft über einen Fragebogen erfasst. Die Bildungsverlaufsdaten wurden anhand von computergestützten Telefoninterviews und der Studienerfolg via Online-Fragebogen erhoben. Der Ausfall zwischen den beiden Messzeitpunkten (unit non-response) wurde anhand des „inverse probability weightings“ adressiert. Fehlende Werte (item non-response) wurden mittels Mehrebenenimputation unter Verwendung von „chained equations“ geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen positive Effekte der am Ende der Schulzeit vorliegenden ökonomischen Kompetenzen auf die Intention und die Entscheidung für ein wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium sowie auf den Erfolg in einem solchen Studium. Zudem zeigen sich für die Wahl eines wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Studiums starke geschlechterspezifische Unterschiede, wobei sich Frauen im Vergleich zu Männern erst bei höheren ökonomischen Kompetenzen für ein derartiges Studium entscheiden. Während bei der Intention und der Entscheidung für ein wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium das ökonomische Wissen und Können sowie die Einstellung in Wirtschaft als stärkste Prädiktoren identifiziert werden können, erweist sich für den Erfolg in einem solchen Studium lediglich noch das Wissen und Können in Wirtschaft als prädiktiv. Die Effekte ökonomischer Kompetenzen gelten dabei unter Kontrolle zahlreicher weiterer in der Literatur genannter Prädiktoren, wie z.B. den schulischen Leistungen, den kognitiven Grundfähigkeiten, den mathematischen und verbalen Fähigkeiten, dem sozioökonomischen Hintergrund, dem Geschlecht sowie der sozialen Unterstützung durch die Familie. Die Ergebnisse sind daher nicht nur über die Zeit, sondern auch unter Berücksichtigung bekannter Prädiktoren als robust einzustufen. Die vorliegende Arbeit liefert erstmals längsschnittliche Befunde über die Wirkungen ökonomischer Kompetenzen beim Übergang von der Schule zur Hochschule und trägt dabei zur Debatte über die Bedeutsamkeit einer ökonomischen Bildung für einen erfolgreichen Übergang sowie für eine domänenspezifische Studierfähigkeit bei. Vor diesem Hintergrund stützen diese Ergebnisse unter anderem auch die seitens der wirtschaftspädagogischen Forschung starke Befürwortung einer ökonomischen Bildung als Teil der schulischen (Allgemein-)Bildung.
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dc.contributor.author: Li, Xiangyu
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dc.contributor.author: Waritschlager, Christoph
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(2020): Berufswünsche geflüchteter Jugendlicher und junger Erwachsener BWP Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis. Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung. 2020, 49(1), pp. 45-47. ISSN 0341-4515
Das System der beruflichen Bildung leistet einen erheblichen Beitrag zur Integration von Jugendlichen und jungen Erwachsenen mit Fluchthintergrund. Die meisten Bundesländer haben für diese Zielgruppe spezifische Vorbereitungsklassen mit dem Fokus auf Spracherwerb und berufliche Orientierung eingerichtet. Ziel der Bildungsgänge ist der Verbleib der Lernenden im Bildungssystem, im Idealfall der Beginn einer Ausbildung. Inwiefern sich dies mit den beruflichen Wünschen junger Geflüchteter deckt, untersucht dieser Beitrag am Beispiel des Regierungsbezirks Freiburg.
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dc.contributor.author: Berndt, Ralph; Fantapié Altobelli, Claudia
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(2020): Evidenzbasierung in der Bildung : Möglichkeiten und Grenzen eines neuen Paradigmas Berufsbildung : Zeitschrift für Theorie, Praxis, Dialog. Eusl-Verlagsgesellschaft. 2020, 74(184), pp. 3-4. ISSN 0005-9536
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(2020): Teachers' experienced classroom demands and autonomic stress reactions : Results of a pilot study PARÍS, Georgina, ed. and others. Learning & professional development : From innovative research to innovative interventions : Book of abstracts of the EARLI SIG14 2020 Conference. 2020, pp. 131. Available under: doi: 10.6084/m9.figshare.12515342
In order to examine relationships between teachers\' experienced classroom demands and autonomic stress reactions, we report results of a pilot study. Based on an integrative literature review we first identify and describe the following classroom demands: (1) missing rest periods, (2) time pressure, (3) pressure to get through the subject matter, (4) vocal strain, (5) uncertainness concerning subject matter, (6) uncertainness concerning didactical decisions, (7) achievement-related diversity in class, (8) lack of social appreciation, (9) disquietude and noise in class, (10) classroom disturbances, (11) behavioural problems of students, (12) insufficient skills and concentration of students, and (13) insufficient motivation and involvement of students. These identified categories of classroom demands are the basis for the empirical item identification and selection (study 1). The identified single-items were used in a single-case short-term longitudinal study where we examine relationships between classroom demands and autonomic stress reactions via first-order vector autoregressive VAR(1) modelling (study 2). The results are discussed regarding teaching and research implications.
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Expanded international data from the PIAAC survey of adult skills allow us to replicate the IALSbased analysis by Coulombe, Tremblay and Marchand (2004) as well as Coulombe and Tremblay (2006) based on more recent and more comprehensive data on the literacy skills of the adult population. Results from panel estimations over the period 1970-2010 suggest that literacy skills have become an even more important determinant of economic growth than was suggested by the IALS analysis covering the period 1960-1995. Our estimates imply long-run elasticities of GDP per capita with respect to literacy of about 3. This means that in the long run a one-percent increase in literacy translates into a three-percent increase in GDP per capita. Short-run elasticities are also substantial. The association between labor productivity and literacy is equally strong. This suggests that the effect of literacy on living standards goes beyond its effect on unemployment and participation rates A closer inspection of the data additionally reveals some important heterogeneities: Investment in the human capital of women appears to have a much stronger effect on subsequent growth than investment in the human capital of men. Our results also suggest that underinvestment in human capital hampers growth by more than developing highly talented individuals stimulates it. Specifically, the proportion of adults with low levels of literacy skill – Levels 1 and 2 – appears to have a much larger impact on growth rates than the proportion of adults with Level 4 and 5 literacy proficiency. Thus, policies that serve to reduce the proportion of low skilled adults would likely yield higher returns than those that serve to increase the proportion of high skilled adults.
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In many games of imperfect information, players can make Bayesian inferences about other players’ types based on the information that is contained in their own type. Several behavioral theories of belief-updating even start from the assumption that players project their own type onto others also when it is not rational. We investigate such inferences in a simple laboratory task, in which types are drawn from one out of two states of the world and participants have to guess the type of another participant. We nd lile evidence for irrational (over-)projection. Instead, between 50% and 70% of the participants in our experiment completely neglect the information contained in their own type and base their choices only on the prior probabilities. Using several experimental interventions, we show that this striking neglect of information is very robust.
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(2020): The relationship between trainers’ media‐didactical competence and media‐didactical self‐efficacy, attitudes and use of digital media in training International Journal of Training and Development. Wiley. 2020, 24(1), pp. 74-88. ISSN 1360-3736. eISSN 1468-2419. Available under: doi: 10.1111/ijtd.12171
The ongoing digitalization in the training sector produces new demands on the media‐didactical competence of trainers. We conducted an online survey of 279 trainers in Germany to investigate the relationships among media‐didactical competence, media‐didactical self‐efficacy, attitudes toward the use of digital media and the actual use of digital media in training. Furthermore, we compared trainers who attended a course on digital media with trainers who did not attend such a course. The analysis of the theoretically expected correlations between the variables resulted in not all hypotheses being accepted. The analysis of the group differences showed that the trainers who attended a course on digital media had higher media‐didactical competence and media‐didactical self‐efficacy scores and used digital media more often in training. There was no significant difference in negative attitudes. The implications for the promotion of the media‐didactical competence of trainers are discussed.