Publikationen

We analyze the joint dynamics of prices, productivity, and employment across firms, building a dynamic equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms who compete for workers and customers in frictional labor and product markets. Using panel data on prices and output for German manufacturing firms, the model is calibrated to evaluate the quantitative contributions of productivity and demand for the labor market. Product market frictions decisively dampen the firms' employment adjustments to productivity shocks. We further analyze the impact of aggregate shocks to the first and second moments of productivity and demand and relate them to business‐cycle features in our data.

One of the most important controversies in the health economics discourse of the last twenty years concerns the question whether the imminent ageing of the population in most OECD countries will place an additional burden on the tax-payers who finance public health care systems. These systems are usually pay-as-you-go financed with taxes or contributions depending on labor income and pensions. Population ageing due to rising longevity and below-replacement fertility in coming decades will lower the population share of working-age persons and raise the share of pensioners. Since labor income exceeds pensions by far, this will weaken the tax base so that tax or contribution rates will rise notably.

Starting a new job is able to boost people's careers, but might come at the expense of other areas of life. To investigate individual implications of job mobility, we analyse the effects of job changes on time-use and indicators of subjective well-being using rich data from a representative German panel survey. We find that job switchers report relatively high levels of life satisfaction, at least for the first time after the job change. There is no such ‘honeymoon’ period for job changes triggered by plant closures. Instead, we find evidence for a harmful impact of involuntary mobility on family life.

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Oral contraceptives (OC) and endogenous female sex hormones in naturally cycling women (NC) are related to a wide range of psychological variables (eg, cognition and affect). Little research on social behavior has been done. One study documented a tendency towards more prosocial behavior in OC than NC women, but the underlying neuroendocrine mechanisms remain unknown. The sex hormones progesterone and estradiol are potential candidates. We analyzed social decision-making and social behavior in 83 healthy women (38 OC and 45 NC) via the Social Value Orientation (SVO) and in real social interactions within a paradigm adapted from behavioral economics. We also measured empathy, and collected saliva samples to quantify the basal levels of estradiol and progesterone. Our analyses revealed higher levels of prosocial behavior and emotional empathy in NC than in OC women, a finding supported by higher levels of prosocial decisions in NC than OC women in the SVO. Regarding the underlying biological mechanisms, we detected lower progesterone levels in OC than NC women. Exploratory analyses revealed a negative correlation between progesterone and trust on the trend level. We found no correlations between estradiol and behavior. Our findings provide evidence that OC modulate social behavior and initial indications of a possible modulation by progesterone. Further research is needed to replicate our findings and extend them to other social behaviors.

Providing instructional explanations is a core component of effective instruction and an important teaching skill. Teaching skills are generally regarded as learnable, and teacher education programs aim to improve teachers’ professional competences. In this study, we analyze to what extent explaining skills can be fostered during teacher education at university by means of a specific training module. We designed a training (university module) for prospective economics teachers at vocational schools (candidates in a Master’s teaching program). By means of videotaped simulated interactions at two measurement points, we analyzed the development of teacher candidates’ explaining skills. Teacher candidates were asked to explain the neoclassical supply and demand model (treatment group: n = 48; control group: n = 30) to an actor playing the role of a school student. The quality of the explanations was operationalized in respect of five aspects of successful explanations, which were derived from a literature review: (1) Content, (2) Student-teacher interaction, (3) Process structure, (4) Representation, and (5) Language. The results show that there was a treatment effect on the development of the Process structure aspect, while Student-teacher interaction appeared to develop “naturally” through experience, regardless of participation in the training. The quality aspects Content, Representation, and Language appeared stable over time. Hence, the findings show that some aspects of explaining skills are learnable even in a short training module. Learning effects are attributable partly to the instructional input received and partly to repeated practice. Both imply the importance of further opportunities to practice instructional explanation in teacher education.

Many educational systems are characterized by segregation between a general and vocational educational track. When adolescents must decide on their postcompulsory education at the end of lower secondary school, the different programs are typically embedded in one of these two main tracks. Prior career choice theories postulate that vocational interests, as structured by the six-dimensional RIASEC model of Holland (1997), play a crucial role in educational and vocational transition processes. However, regarding the question of general versus vocational education, previous studies have mainly focused on the effects of social background. Therefore, this paper examines the impact of vocational interests on the choice of Baccalaureate School (BAC, general track), Vocational Education and Training (VET, vocational track) or the Federal Vocational Baccalaureate (FVB), a hybrid qualification that links elements of both tracks. The sample consists of N = 609 students at the end of lower secondary school in Switzerland. The results of multinomial logistic regression analyses show that all six dimensions of Holland’s interest model are significant predictors for the three postcompulsory tracks, even when controlling for school variables (e.g., grades) and variables of social background. While the realistic and social dimensions are positively interrelated with the choice of VET, the artistic, investigative and enterprising dimensions predict the choice of BAC. The conventional dimension is the only one positively linked to the choice of FVB. The results are discussed with special attention to segregation between more practical and more theoretical types of interests.

We introduce new forecast encompassing tests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES). The ES has received much attention since its introduction into the Basel III Accords, which stipulate its use as the primary market risk measure for international banking regulation. We utilize joint loss functions for the pair ES and Value at Risk to set up three ES encompassing test variants. The tests are built on an asymptotic theory that is robust to misspecifications. We investigate the finite sample properties of the tests in an extensive simulation study. Finally, we use the encompassing tests to illustrate the potential of forecast combination methods for different financial assets.

Addressing heterogeneity in the classroom by adapting instruction to learners’ needs challenges teachers in their daily work. To provide adaptive instruction in the most flexible way, teachers face the problem of assessing students’ individual characteristics (learning prerequisites and learning needs) and situational states (learning experiences and learning progress) along with the characteristics of the learning environment. To support teachers in gathering and processing such multidimensional diagnostic information in class, we have developed a client–server based software prototype running on mobile devices: the Teachers’ Diagnostic Support System. Following the generic educational design research process, we (1) delineate theoretical implications for system requirements drawn from a literature review, (2) describe the systems’ design and technical development and (3) report the results of a usability study. We broaden our theoretical understanding of heterogeneity within school classes and establish a basis for technological interventions to improve diagnostic accuracy in adaptive instructional strategies.

We present an interactive eye-tracking study that explores the strategic use of gaze. We analyze gaze behavior in an experiment with four simple games. The game can either be a competitive (hide & seek) game in which players want to be unpredictable, or a game of common interest in which players want to be predictable. Gaze is transmitted either in real time to another subject, or it is not transmitted and therefore non-strategic. We find that subjects are able to interpret non-strategic gaze, obtaining substantially higher payoffs than subjects who do not see gaze. If gaze is transmitted in real time, gaze becomes more informative in the common interest games and players predominantly succeed to coordinate on efficient outcomes. In contrast, gaze becomes less informative in the competitive game.

Since stakeholders tend to fall prey to the left-digit bias when processing the information from financial statements, managers have an incentive to report performance measures that meet those thresholds that investors regard as critical. If the actually realized performance metric falls below these thresholds, managers might use accounting discretion to round up the reported number. This behavior is objectionable only if rounding involves large-scale earnings management, but not in cases of insignificant “earnings cosmetics”. Using Benford’s Law, we document rounding in German firms for both the unscaled net income and the earnings per share, but not for the revenues, the operating income, and the cash flow from operations. In subsequent analyses, we show that firms round only one of these earnings numbers (but not both). Moreover, we use the introduction of the Euro to show that round earnings numbers are likely the result of management’s deliberate actions. However, the difference between the pre-managed and the reported earnings is unobservable. Thus, we investigate whether the prevalence of rounding up depends on several earnings and auditor characteristics. If rounding up is “cosmetic”, it should occur independently of these characteristics. In contrast, if firms use earnings management on a larger scale, it might not be possible to simultaneously round up and achieve other earnings management objectives. Moreover, auditors providing higher quality should only prevent large-scale earnings management. Our evidence is in line with substantial earnings management because we find that only firms with specific levels of the earnings and auditor characteristics round up.

Lehransätze sind ein bedeutsamer Faktor in der Gestaltung von Lehrsettings und für den Lernerfolg der Lernenden, wurden jedoch bisher noch nicht im Weiterbildungskontext untersucht. Bereits bestehende Instrumente aus der Hochschulforschung, wie das Approaches to Teaching Inventory, sind aufgrund der kontextspezifischen Items weniger geeignet für die Verwendung im Weiterbildungskontext. Für die zukünftige Erforschung von Lehransätzen in der Weiterbildung wurde daher ein Messinstrument mit 17 Items entwickelt, das transmissive (LA-T) und konstruktivistische (LA-K) Lehransätze erfassen soll. Die Items wurden auf Basis einer qualitativen Vorstudie (N = 45) und einem Pretest entwickelt und in einer quantitativen Hauptstudie (N = 411) auf Reliabilität und Validität untersucht. Das Instrument wurde anhand einer explorativen Faktorenanalyse entwickelt und die Struktur der Skalen LA‑T und LA‑K durch exploratory structural equation modelling (ESEM) geprüft. Die Lehransatz-Skala bietet damit eine Basis für die weitere Erforschung von Lehransätzen im Weiterbildungskontext.

This article proposes a parsimonious model to forecast large vectors of realized variances (RVar) by exploiting their common dynamics within a latent factor structure. Their long persistence is captured by aggregating latent factors with AR(1) dynamics. The model has obvious advantages over standard autoregressive models not only in terms of parametrization, but also in terms of efficiency, when increasing the dimension of the vector, as it provides more information on the commonality of the series’ dynamics. The model easily accommodates further empirical features of RVars, such as conditional heteroskedasticity. For estimation purposes, we use the maximum likelihood method based on Kalman filter and the efficient method of moments, both being easy to implement and providing accurate estimates. Our empirical illustration on real data shows that the model we propose often outperforms standard models, most of which are, for vectors of RVar series, only implementable under heavy parametric restrictions.

We use detailed administrative data to study the adjustment of local labor markets to industrial robots in Germany. Robot exposure, as predicted by a shift-share variable, is associated with displacement effects in manufacturing, but those are fully offset by new jobs in services. The incidence mostly falls on young workers just entering the labor force. Automation is related to more stable employment within firms for incumbents, and this is driven by workers taking over new tasks in their original plants. Several measures indicate that those new jobs are of higher quality than the previous ones. Young workers also adapt their educational choices, and substitute away from vocational training towards colleges and universities. Finally, industrial robots have benefited workers in occupations with complementary tasks, such as managers or technical scientists.

We study the optimal design of student financial aid as a function of parental income. We derive optimal financial aid formulas in a general model. We estimate a model of selection into college for the United States that comprises multidimensional heterogeneity, endogenous parental transfers, dropout, labor supply in college, and uncertain returns. We quantify optimal financial aid in the estimated model and find it is strongly declining in parental income even without distributional concerns. Equity and efficiency go hand in hand.

Im Beitrag wird zunächst auf den Emotionsbegriff sowie auf allgemeine Merkmale von Emotionen eingegangen. Anschließend werden unterschiedliche Möglichkeiten der Emotionsentstehung und -regulation beschrieben, bevor abschließend für eine „Emotions-integrierende“ Lerngesellschaft plädiert wird.

Journal of Economic Behavior & OrganizationWe study the role of information about the multiplier in a finitely repeated investment game. A high multiplier increases the reputational incentives of a trustee, leading to more repayments. Our perfect Bayesian equilibrium analysis shows that if the trustee is privately informed about the multiplier, both the expected frequency of investments and repayments as well as the expected payoffs of both players are higher compared to a situation where the multiplier is public knowledge. We test this result in a laboratory experiment. The data cannot confirm the predicted welfare dominance of private information about the multiplier. We discuss potential reasons for the deviation between theory and experimental data.