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  • Wie gelingt die Integration junger Zugewanderter in den Arbeitsmarkt? : Das Integration@Work-Projekt

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    Aktuell gibt es eine steigende Zuwanderung in den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt – nicht nur von Geflüchteten, sondern auch durch die aktive Anwerbung ausländischer Fachkräfte. Im Hinblick auf eine erfolgreiche ökonomische und soziale Integration spielt das duale Ausbildungssystem eine wichtige Rolle. Allerdings zeigen sich bei zugewanderten Auszubildenden deutlich höhere Abbruchquoten als bei Auszubildenden mit deutschem Pass. Besonders ausgeprägt ist das in Branchen, die stark vom Fachkräftemangel betroffen sind, wie im Handwerk oder den Pflegeberufen. In diesem Policy Paper werden Faktoren identifiziert, die die Integration junger Zugewanderter in den Ausbildungsmarkt verbessern und entsprechende Handlungsempfehlungen an Ausbildungsbetriebe und politische Akteure formuliert.

  • (2023): The role of international cooperation in the development of vocational education in Ukraine European Journal of Education. Wiley. 2023, 58(4), pp. 665-680. ISSN 0141-8211. eISSN 1465-3435. Available under: doi: 10.1111/ejed.12586

    The role of international cooperation in the development of vocational education in Ukraine

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    Since gaining independence, Ukraine has recognised the need to reform its vocational education and training (VET) system to better align with new economic realities. This necessity was largely driven by the country's increasing openness to the world and its desire to integrate with the European Union, which became especially pronounced after the Euromaidan protests in 2014. As a result, the government has pursued policies that are more closely aligned with the European Union. This led to greater international cooperation in the sphere of VET in Ukraine. The study on which this article reports analyses the impact of international organisations and cooperation programmes, as well as actions, initiatives and projects, on the changes and reforms in the Ukrainian VET system from 2013 to 2022 on normative and institutional levels. We adopt a theoretical framework that explains the areas and instruments of influence on policymaking in education used by international organisations. The method applied in the study is interviews with experts from international projects and initiatives currently active in Ukraine. Our findings indicate that international cooperation programmes have had a significant impact on the development of vocational education in Ukraine, particularly in areas such as the governance of the VET system, public‐private partnerships, quality assurance, qualifications frameworks, and digitalisation.

  • (2023): Robust Bidding in First-Price Auctions : How to Bid Without Knowing What Others Are Doing Management Science. Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). ISSN 0025-1909. eISSN 1526-5501. Available under: doi: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.4899

    Robust Bidding in First-Price Auctions : How to Bid Without Knowing What Others Are Doing

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    We propose how to bid in first-price auctions when a bidder knows the own value but not how others will bid. To do this, we introduce a methodology to show how to make choices in strategic settings without assuming common knowledge or equilibrium behavior. Accordingly, we first eliminate environments that are believed not to occur and then find a robust rule that performs well in the remaining environments. We test our bids using data from laboratory experiments and the field and find that our bids outperform those made by real bidders.

  • Four essays in repeated games

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    dc.title:


    dc.contributor.author: Bao, Yongping

  • (2023): Mystery Shopping as a Strategic Management Practice in Multi-Site Service Firms Academy of Management Proceedings. Academy of Management. 2023(1). ISSN 0065-0668. eISSN 2151-6561. Available under: doi: 10.5465/amproc.2023.15600abstract

    Mystery Shopping as a Strategic Management Practice in Multi-Site Service Firms

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    Anonymous and unannounced worksite inspections known as ``Mystery Shopping'' (MS) are common in multi-site service firms, but little is known about the strategic importance of this practice. We conceptualize MS as a monitoring tool firms use to implement the optimal allocation of site resources between sales- and service-related activities in the presence of cross-site reputation spillovers, which is to maximize sales while maintaining service standards. Consistent with this view, data from three retail chains reveal (i) low variation in MS scores, (ii) little correlation of MS scores with sales, and iii) high correlation of sites' MS scores with the likelihood of their supervisors receiving incentive bonuses. Our findings are robust to different model specifications, and shed new light on a ubiquitous yet little-studied management practice.

  • (2023): Birds of a Feather : Do Hedge Fund Managers Flock Together? Management Science. Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). ISSN 0025-1909. eISSN 1526-5501. Available under: doi: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.4843

    Birds of a Feather : Do Hedge Fund Managers Flock Together?

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    Mandatory filings for UK hedge funds suggest that managers having worked at the same prior employer invest more similarly in terms of distances of returns. If they overlapped in employment, increasing the chance of social ties, investments become even more similar. The joint effect accounts for up to two thirds of the difference in investing behavior. Results are robust to fund- and manager-level controls as well as to identification concerns. With controls, the same-employer effect is concentrated in the systematic component (beta), whereas the overlap effect is concentrated in the idiosyncratic components (alpha and residuals). Managerial ties make any two funds more similar in their stock holdings. Moreover, portfolios of connected funds outperform their peers in terms of alpha, return volatility, and Sharpe ratio.

  • (2023): Social mobility and education policy : a district-level analysis of legislative behavior Socio-Economic Review. Oxford University Press (OUP). ISSN 1475-1461. eISSN 1475-147X. Available under: doi: 10.1093/ser/mwad038

    Social mobility and education policy : a district-level analysis of legislative behavior

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    A vast literature has examined how perceptions of mobility shape demand for redistribution. These studies generally refer to contemporaneous tax policies demanded by those directly impacted. But social mobility is often measured as changes across generations. To account for these intergenerational effects, our analysis focuses on educational policies. We examine how social mobility at the district level explains legislative support for inclusive education policies. We first develop an electoral competition model where voters are altruistic parents, politicians are office seeking and the future economic status of the children is affected both by the degree of income mobility and by public education policies. We then analyze a newly compiled dataset of roll-call votes on California education legislation matched with electoral district levels of income mobility. In line with the model, our analysis suggests that upward mobility in a district negatively predicts legislative support for redistributive education bills.

  • (2023): When can auctions maximize post-auction welfare? International Journal of Industrial Organization. Elsevier. 2023, 89, 102972. ISSN 0167-7187. eISSN 1873-7986. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2023.102972

    When can auctions maximize post-auction welfare?

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    I study auctions in which firms bid for licenses that reduce their marginal costs in a post-auction downstream market. When there are three or more firms, I show that the Vickrey–Clarke–Groves (VCG) auction maximizes consumer surplus in dominant strategies if and only if it maximizes producer surplus in dominant strategies. With two firms, the effect on consumer surplus is ambiguous. When the VCG auction does not maximize consumer surplus, I show that consumer surplus can be maximized by adding caps, i.e., restricting the number of licenses a bidder can win. This might lower producer surplus.

  • (2023): Wie kommen unterschiedliche Formen von Lehrvertragsauflösungen zustande? Transfer. Berufsbildung in Forschung und Praxis ; 8,6. Bern: Schweizerische Gesellschaft für angewandte Berufsbildungsforschung SGAB

    Wie kommen unterschiedliche Formen von Lehrvertragsauflösungen zustande?

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    dc.title:


    dc.contributor.author: Findeisen, Stefanie; Ramseier, Lukas; Neuenschwander, Markus P.

  • (2023): Seeking shelter in times of crisis? : unemployment, perceived job insecurity and trade union membership Economica. Wiley. 2023, 90(359), pp. 1041-1088. ISSN 0013-0427. eISSN 1468-0335. Available under: doi: 10.1111/ecca.12480

    Seeking shelter in times of crisis? : unemployment, perceived job insecurity and trade union membership

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    Do trade unions benefit from economic crises by attracting new members among workers concerned about job security? To address this question, we provide a comprehensive empirical investigation based on panel data from Germany, where workers decide individually on their membership. We analyse whether exogenously manipulated perceptions of job insecurity encourage individuals to join a trade union. Firm-level workforce reductions serve as the first trigger of perceived job insecurity. Regional unemployment rates represent a second source of exogenous variation. Third, we propose a novel identification approach based on plant-closure-induced job losses of other workers in the same region. In each case, we exploit the longitudinal nature of the data to analyse the implications of changes in labour market conditions for changes in union membership using an instrumental variable approach. We find consistently that perceived job insecurity, as triggered by labour market turmoil, increases the likelihood of individual union membership. Analysing data on media coverage about downsizing in a complementary investigation, we add further evidence to the notion of trade unions as beneficiaries of labour market crises. Finally, we consider workers who lose their jobs and find no evidence of adverse effects on union membership among those affected directly by unemployment.

  • (2023): Projection Estimators for Structural Impulse Responses Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. Wiley. 2023, 85(6), pp. 1320-1340. ISSN 0305-9049. eISSN 1468-0084. Available under: doi: 10.1111/obes.12562

    Projection Estimators for Structural Impulse Responses

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    In this paper we provide a general two-step framework for linear projection estimators of impulse responses in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). This framework is particularly useful for situations when structural shocks are identified from information outside the VAR (e.g. narrative shocks). We provide asymptotic results for statistical inference and discuss situations when standard inference is valid without adjustment for generated regressors, autocorrelated errors or non-stationary variables. We illustrate how various popular SVAR models fit into our framework. Furthermore, we provide a local projection framework for invertible SVAR models that are estimated by instrumental variables (IV). This class of models results in a set of quadratic moment conditions used to obtain the asymptotic distribution of the estimator. Moreover, we analyse generalized least squares (GLS) versions of the projections to improve the efficiency of the projection estimators. We also compare the finite sample properties of various estimators in simulations. Two highlights of the Monte Carlo results are (i) for invertible VARs our two-step IV projection estimator is more efficient compared to existing projection estimators and (ii) using the GLS projection variant with residual augmentation leads to substantial efficiency gains relative to standard OLS/IV projection estimators.

  • (2023): Development, predictors, and effects of trainees’ organizational identification during their first year of vocational education and training Frontiers in Psychology. Frontiers. 2023, 14, 1148251. eISSN 1664-1078. Available under: doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1148251

    Development, predictors, and effects of trainees’ organizational identification during their first year of vocational education and training

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    The vocational identity of trainees is one component of their professional competence and is considered to be a central goal of vocational education and training (VET) programs. From the numerous identity constructs and conceptualizations, this study focuses on the organizational identification of trainees, that is, the extent to which trainees internalize the values and goals of their training company and perceive themselves as part of this company. We are specifically interested in the development, predictors, and effects of trainees’ organizational identification, as well as the interrelations between organizational identification and social integration. We use longitudinal data of n  = 250 trainees in dual VET programs in Germany at the very beginning of their VET program (t1), after 3 months (t2), and after 9 months (t3). A structural equation model was used to analyze the development, predictors, and effects of organizational identification for the first 9 months of training and the cross-lagged effects between organizational identification and social integration. The results showed a high stability of trainees’ organizational identification over the first 9 months. Regarding the predictors, the results indicated positive direct and indirect effects of the formal socialization tactics implemented by the training company, as well as of support by the trainer at the beginning of the training. However, collegial support at the beginning of the training did not seem to play a significant role in organizational identification. Moreover, organizational identification positively affected trainees’ emotional engagement and self-perceived competence while negatively predicting dropout intentions after 9 months of training. Finally, the cross-lagged effects between organizational identification and social integration were not significant, and only at t3 were these constructs positively correlated. However, regarding the development, predictors, and effects, very similar results were found for organizational identification and social integration. The results underline the positive significance of organizational identification for the individual, the company, and society, even at this early stage of training. The results are discussed regarding both their scientific and practical implications.

  • Tūtlys, Vidmantas; Vaitkutė, Lina; Nägele, Christof (Eds.) (2023): Promoting VET by Implementing a "Dual System" in Ukraine TŪTLYS, Vidmantas, ed., Lina VAITKUTĖ, ed., Christof NÄGELE, ed.. Vocational Education and Training Transformations for Digital, Sustainable and Socially Fair Future. Proceedings of the 5th Crossing Boundaries Conference in Vocational Education and Training. Kaunas: Vytautas Magnus University Institute of Educational Research, 2023, pp. 70-78. ISBN 9798390503386. Available under: doi: 10.5281/zenodo.7808278

    Promoting VET by Implementing a "Dual System" in Ukraine

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    In the course of recent history, the Ukrainian vocational education and training system (VET) system has evolved from a system with a large share of work-based learning to a school-based model. Both models struggle(ed) with a lack of appreciation among the population and in companies (Braun, 2022; Melnyk, 2021). Currently, attempts are being made to upgrade marginalised VET by moving work-based learning back to the centre of it. Specifically, Ukraine implemented a dual VET system in a pilot project in 2015, which has since expanded. While three VET institutions were involved in 2015, 217 were recorded in 2021 (MES & Institute of Educational Analytics, 2021). This is not only associated with hopes for demand-oriented, recognised VET, but also with challenges such as creating a working legal framework for the dual forms of education, encouraging and creating incentives for all actors to participate and contribute to the development of the skill formation and overcoming long-established stereotypes about VET in Ukraine (e. g. Boichevska & Veremiuk, 2020; Deissinger & Melnyk, 2019). The aim of the paper is to analyse these issues and come to an up-to-date assessment of the reform implementation, its possible prospects and pitfalls. To achieve this goal, it is first necessary to consider why it is important to promote VET in Ukraine in the first place and where its low esteem results from. This is primarily due to historical-political developments and cultural causes (Braun, 2022; Melnyk, 2021). Finally, the dual system approach is analysed in concrete terms, taking into account the previously explained background, and the challenges are worked out. For example, it is difficult to convince employers to participate in VET, which they usually see as the sole responsibility of the state (cf. Prytomanov et al., 2018). The results present a summary of the diverse research activities of the authors connected with VET in Ukraine conducted during 2018-2021.

  • (2023): Collective Negative Shocks and Preferences for Redistribution : Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis in Germany Journal of Economic Inequality. Springer. 2023, 21(2), pp. 381-403. ISSN 1569-1721. eISSN 1573-8701. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s10888-022-09558-2

    Collective Negative Shocks and Preferences for Redistribution : Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis in Germany

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    Using new data from a three-wave panel survey administered in Germany between May 2020 and May 2021, this paper studies the impact of a negative shock affecting all strata of the population, such as the development of COVID-19, on preferences for redistribution. Exploiting the plausibly exogenous change in the severity of the infection rate at the county level, we show that, contrary to some theoretical expectations, the worse the crisis, the less our respondents expressed support for redistribution. We provide further evidence that this is not driven by a decrease in inequality aversion but might be driven by the individuals’ level of trust.

  • (2023): What Do Employee Referral Programs Do? : Measuring the Direct and Overall Effects of a Management Practice Journal of Political Economy. University of Chicago Press. 2023, 313(3), pp. 633-686. ISSN 0022-3808. eISSN 1537-534X. Available under: doi: 10.1086/721735

    What Do Employee Referral Programs Do? : Measuring the Direct and Overall Effects of a Management Practice

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    Employee referral programs (ERPs) are randomly introduced in a grocery chain. On direct effects, larger referral bonuses increase referral quantity but decrease quality, though the increase in referrals from ERPs is modest. However, the overall effect of having an ERP is substantial, reducing attrition by 15% and significantly decreasing labor costs. This occurs, partly, because referrals stay longer than nonreferrals, but, mainly, from indirect effects: nonreferrals stay longer in treated than in control stores. The most supported mechanism for these indirect effects is workers value being involved in hiring. Attrition impacts are larger in higher performing stores and better local labor markets.

  • (2023): Principal’s distributive preferences and the incentivization of agents Experimental Economics. Springer. 2023, 26(3), pp. 646-672. ISSN 1386-4157. eISSN 1573-6938. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s10683-023-09791-0

    Principal’s distributive preferences and the incentivization of agents

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    Do principals' distributive preferences affect the allocation of incentives within firms? We run a Principal-Agent lab experiment, framed as a firm setting. In the experiment, subjects are randomized in the principal or worker position. Principals must choose piece rate wage contracts for two workers that differ in terms of ability. Workers have to choose an effort level that is non-contractible. Principals are either paid in proportion to the output produced (Stakeholder treatment) or paid a fixed wage (Spectator treatment). We study how principals make trade-offs between incentive concerns (motivating workers to maximize output) and their own normative distributive preferences. We find that, despite the firm-frame and the moral hazard situation, principals do hold egalitarian concerns, as principals are on average willing to trade off their firm's performance (and so their own income) for more wage equality among their workers. The willingness to reduce inequality among workers is sensitive to both extensive and intensive margin incentives, which shows that principals' choices are shaped by incentives that they face themselves.

  • (2023): Directed Graphs and Variable Selection in Large Vector Autoregressive Models Journal of Time Series Analysis. Wiley. 2023, 44(2), pp. 223-246. ISSN 0143-9782. eISSN 1467-9892. Available under: doi: 10.1111/jtsa.12664

    Directed Graphs and Variable Selection in Large Vector Autoregressive Models

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    We represent the dynamic relation among variables in vector autoregressive (VAR) models as directed graphs. Based on these graphs, we identify so-called strongly connected components (SCCs). Using this graphical representation, we consider the problem of variable choice. We use the relations among the strongly connected components to select variables that need to be included in a VAR if interest is in impulse response analysis of a given set of variables. Our theoretical contributions show that the set of selected variables from the graphical method coincides with the set of variables that is multi-step causal for the variables of interest by relating the paths in the graph to the coefficients of the ‘direct’ VAR representation. An empirical application illustrates the usefulness of the suggested approach: Including the selected variables into a small US monetary VAR is useful for impulse response analysis as it avoids the well-known ‘price-puzzle’.

  • Do Role Models Matter in Large Classes? : New Evidence on Gender Match Effects in Higher Education

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    We study whether female students benefit from being taught by female professors, and whether such gender match effects differ by class size. We use administrative records of a German public university, covering all programs and courses between 2006 and 2018. We find that gender match effects on student performance are sizable in smaller classes, but do not exist in larger classes. This difference suggests that direct and frequent interactions between students and professors are important for the emergence of gender match effects. Instead, the mere fact that one’s professor is female is not sufficient to increase performance of female students.

  • (2023): Economic geography aspects of the Panama Canal Oxford Economic Papers. Oxford University Press (OUP). 2023, 75(1), pp. 142-162. ISSN 0030-7653. eISSN 1464-3812. Available under: doi: 10.1093/oep/gpac009

    Economic geography aspects of the Panama Canal

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    This paper studies how the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 changed counties’ market potential and influenced the economic geography of the USA. We compute shipment effective distances with and without the canal from each US county to each other US county and to international ports and compute the resulting change in market potential. The main elasticity would imply that a 1% increase in market potential led to a total increase of population by around 2.3% in 1940. We compute similar elasticities for wages, land values, and immigration from out of state. Tradable (manufacturing) industries react stronger than non-tradable (services) industries.

  • Do Role Models Matter in Large Classes? : New Evidence on Gender Match Effects in Higher Education

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    We study whether female students benefit from being taught by female professors, and whether such gender match effects differ by class size. We use administrative records of a German public university, covering all programs and courses between 2006 and 2018. We find that gender match effects on student performance are sizable in smaller classes, but do not exist in larger classes. This difference suggests that direct and frequent interactions between students and professors are important for the emergence of gender match effects. Instead, the mere fact that one’s professor is female is not sufficient to increase performance of female students.

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