Publications

Since gaining independence, Ukraine has recognised the need to reform its vocational education and training (VET) system to better align with new economic realities. This necessity was largely driven by the country's increasing openness to the world and its desire to integrate with the European Union, which became especially pronounced after the Euromaidan protests in 2014. As a result, the government has pursued policies that are more closely aligned with the European Union. This led to greater international cooperation in the sphere of VET in Ukraine. The study on which this article reports analyses the impact of international organisations and cooperation programmes, as well as actions, initiatives and projects, on the changes and reforms in the Ukrainian VET system from 2013 to 2022 on normative and institutional levels. We adopt a theoretical framework that explains the areas and instruments of influence on policymaking in education used by international organisations. The method applied in the study is interviews with experts from international projects and initiatives currently active in Ukraine. Our findings indicate that international cooperation programmes have had a significant impact on the development of vocational education in Ukraine, particularly in areas such as the governance of the VET system, public‐private partnerships, quality assurance, qualifications frameworks, and digitalisation.

We propose how to bid in first-price auctions when a bidder knows the own value but not how others will bid. To do this, we introduce a methodology to show how to make choices in strategic settings without assuming common knowledge or equilibrium behavior. Accordingly, we first eliminate environments that are believed not to occur and then find a robust rule that performs well in the remaining environments. We test our bids using data from laboratory experiments and the field and find that our bids outperform those made by real bidders.

Anonymous and unannounced worksite inspections known as ``Mystery Shopping'' (MS) are common in multi-site service firms, but little is known about the strategic importance of this practice. We conceptualize MS as a monitoring tool firms use to implement the optimal allocation of site resources between sales- and service-related activities in the presence of cross-site reputation spillovers, which is to maximize sales while maintaining service standards. Consistent with this view, data from three retail chains reveal (i) low variation in MS scores, (ii) little correlation of MS scores with sales, and iii) high correlation of sites' MS scores with the likelihood of their supervisors receiving incentive bonuses. Our findings are robust to different model specifications, and shed new light on a ubiquitous yet little-studied management practice.

Mandatory filings for UK hedge funds suggest that managers having worked at the same prior employer invest more similarly in terms of distances of returns. If they overlapped in employment, increasing the chance of social ties, investments become even more similar. The joint effect accounts for up to two thirds of the difference in investing behavior. Results are robust to fund- and manager-level controls as well as to identification concerns. With controls, the same-employer effect is concentrated in the systematic component (beta), whereas the overlap effect is concentrated in the idiosyncratic components (alpha and residuals). Managerial ties make any two funds more similar in their stock holdings. Moreover, portfolios of connected funds outperform their peers in terms of alpha, return volatility, and Sharpe ratio.

A vast literature has examined how perceptions of mobility shape demand for redistribution. These studies generally refer to contemporaneous tax policies demanded by those directly impacted. But social mobility is often measured as changes across generations. To account for these intergenerational effects, our analysis focuses on educational policies. We examine how social mobility at the district level explains legislative support for inclusive education policies. We first develop an electoral competition model where voters are altruistic parents, politicians are office seeking and the future economic status of the children is affected both by the degree of income mobility and by public education policies. We then analyze a newly compiled dataset of roll-call votes on California education legislation matched with electoral district levels of income mobility. In line with the model, our analysis suggests that upward mobility in a district negatively predicts legislative support for redistributive education bills.

I study auctions in which firms bid for licenses that reduce their marginal costs in a post-auction downstream market. When there are three or more firms, I show that the Vickrey–Clarke–Groves (VCG) auction maximizes consumer surplus in dominant strategies if and only if it maximizes producer surplus in dominant strategies. With two firms, the effect on consumer surplus is ambiguous. When the VCG auction does not maximize consumer surplus, I show that consumer surplus can be maximized by adding caps, i.e., restricting the number of licenses a bidder can win. This might lower producer surplus.

Do trade unions benefit from economic crises by attracting new members among workers concerned about job security? To address this question, we provide a comprehensive empirical investigation based on panel data from Germany, where workers decide individually on their membership. We analyse whether exogenously manipulated perceptions of job insecurity encourage individuals to join a trade union. Firm-level workforce reductions serve as the first trigger of perceived job insecurity. Regional unemployment rates represent a second source of exogenous variation. Third, we propose a novel identification approach based on plant-closure-induced job losses of other workers in the same region. In each case, we exploit the longitudinal nature of the data to analyse the implications of changes in labour market conditions for changes in union membership using an instrumental variable approach. We find consistently that perceived job insecurity, as triggered by labour market turmoil, increases the likelihood of individual union membership. Analysing data on media coverage about downsizing in a complementary investigation, we add further evidence to the notion of trade unions as beneficiaries of labour market crises. Finally, we consider workers who lose their jobs and find no evidence of adverse effects on union membership among those affected directly by unemployment.

In this paper we provide a general two-step framework for linear projection estimators of impulse responses in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). This framework is particularly useful for situations when structural shocks are identified from information outside the VAR (e.g. narrative shocks). We provide asymptotic results for statistical inference and discuss situations when standard inference is valid without adjustment for generated regressors, autocorrelated errors or non-stationary variables. We illustrate how various popular SVAR models fit into our framework. Furthermore, we provide a local projection framework for invertible SVAR models that are estimated by instrumental variables (IV). This class of models results in a set of quadratic moment conditions used to obtain the asymptotic distribution of the estimator. Moreover, we analyse generalized least squares (GLS) versions of the projections to improve the efficiency of the projection estimators. We also compare the finite sample properties of various estimators in simulations. Two highlights of the Monte Carlo results are (i) for invertible VARs our two-step IV projection estimator is more efficient compared to existing projection estimators and (ii) using the GLS projection variant with residual augmentation leads to substantial efficiency gains relative to standard OLS/IV projection estimators.

The vocational identity of trainees is one component of their professional competence and is considered to be a central goal of vocational education and training (VET) programs. From the numerous identity constructs and conceptualizations, this study focuses on the organizational identification of trainees, that is, the extent to which trainees internalize the values and goals of their training company and perceive themselves as part of this company. We are specifically interested in the development, predictors, and effects of trainees’ organizational identification, as well as the interrelations between organizational identification and social integration. We use longitudinal data of n  = 250 trainees in dual VET programs in Germany at the very beginning of their VET program (t1), after 3 months (t2), and after 9 months (t3). A structural equation model was used to analyze the development, predictors, and effects of organizational identification for the first 9 months of training and the cross-lagged effects between organizational identification and social integration. The results showed a high stability of trainees’ organizational identification over the first 9 months. Regarding the predictors, the results indicated positive direct and indirect effects of the formal socialization tactics implemented by the training company, as well as of support by the trainer at the beginning of the training. However, collegial support at the beginning of the training did not seem to play a significant role in organizational identification. Moreover, organizational identification positively affected trainees’ emotional engagement and self-perceived competence while negatively predicting dropout intentions after 9 months of training. Finally, the cross-lagged effects between organizational identification and social integration were not significant, and only at t3 were these constructs positively correlated. However, regarding the development, predictors, and effects, very similar results were found for organizational identification and social integration. The results underline the positive significance of organizational identification for the individual, the company, and society, even at this early stage of training. The results are discussed regarding both their scientific and practical implications.

Using new data from a three-wave panel survey administered in Germany between May 2020 and May 2021, this paper studies the impact of a negative shock affecting all strata of the population, such as the development of COVID-19, on preferences for redistribution. Exploiting the plausibly exogenous change in the severity of the infection rate at the county level, we show that, contrary to some theoretical expectations, the worse the crisis, the less our respondents expressed support for redistribution. We provide further evidence that this is not driven by a decrease in inequality aversion but might be driven by the individuals’ level of trust.

Employee referral programs (ERPs) are randomly introduced in a grocery chain. On direct effects, larger referral bonuses increase referral quantity but decrease quality, though the increase in referrals from ERPs is modest. However, the overall effect of having an ERP is substantial, reducing attrition by 15% and significantly decreasing labor costs. This occurs, partly, because referrals stay longer than nonreferrals, but, mainly, from indirect effects: nonreferrals stay longer in treated than in control stores. The most supported mechanism for these indirect effects is workers value being involved in hiring. Attrition impacts are larger in higher performing stores and better local labor markets.

Do principals' distributive preferences affect the allocation of incentives within firms? We run a Principal-Agent lab experiment, framed as a firm setting. In the experiment, subjects are randomized in the principal or worker position. Principals must choose piece rate wage contracts for two workers that differ in terms of ability. Workers have to choose an effort level that is non-contractible. Principals are either paid in proportion to the output produced (Stakeholder treatment) or paid a fixed wage (Spectator treatment). We study how principals make trade-offs between incentive concerns (motivating workers to maximize output) and their own normative distributive preferences. We find that, despite the firm-frame and the moral hazard situation, principals do hold egalitarian concerns, as principals are on average willing to trade off their firm's performance (and so their own income) for more wage equality among their workers. The willingness to reduce inequality among workers is sensitive to both extensive and intensive margin incentives, which shows that principals' choices are shaped by incentives that they face themselves.

We represent the dynamic relation among variables in vector autoregressive (VAR) models as directed graphs. Based on these graphs, we identify so-called strongly connected components (SCCs). Using this graphical representation, we consider the problem of variable choice. We use the relations among the strongly connected components to select variables that need to be included in a VAR if interest is in impulse response analysis of a given set of variables. Our theoretical contributions show that the set of selected variables from the graphical method coincides with the set of variables that is multi-step causal for the variables of interest by relating the paths in the graph to the coefficients of the ‘direct’ VAR representation. An empirical application illustrates the usefulness of the suggested approach: Including the selected variables into a small US monetary VAR is useful for impulse response analysis as it avoids the well-known ‘price-puzzle’.

This paper studies how the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 changed counties’ market potential and influenced the economic geography of the USA. We compute shipment effective distances with and without the canal from each US county to each other US county and to international ports and compute the resulting change in market potential. The main elasticity would imply that a 1% increase in market potential led to a total increase of population by around 2.3% in 1940. We compute similar elasticities for wages, land values, and immigration from out of state. Tradable (manufacturing) industries react stronger than non-tradable (services) industries.