Latest Publications
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(2019): Die Rechnungslegung von Bistümern im Wandel STEFANI, Ulrike, ed., Reiner KLINZ, ed.. Rechnungslegung in katholischen Bistümern. Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler, 2019, pp. 3-14. ISBN 978-3-658-22790-6. Available under: doi: 10.1007/978-3-658-22791-3_1
Die Öffentlichkeit erwartet von den deutschen Bistümern die Transparenz ihrer finanziellen und wirtschaftlichen Lage. Die Rechnungslegung der deutschen Bistümer hat sich daher in den letzten Jahren stark verändert. Vieles wurde auf den Weg gebracht. Die Buchführung wurde von der Kameralistik auf die Doppik umgestellt, Vermögensgegenstände und Schulden wurden inventarisiert und in einer Eröffnungsbilanz erfasst, die Rechnungslegung wurde dem Handelsrecht angeglichen, es wurden Jahresabschlüsse mit Bilanz und Ergebnisrechnung aufgestellt, das Controlling wurde angepasst, alle Buchhaltungsprozesse und Abschlussprozesse wurden verändert. Es bleibt abzuwarten, ob mit der aktuellen Berichterstattung die Fragen der Öffentlichkeit beantwortet werden können.
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(2019): Testing out-of-sample portfolio performance International Journal of Forecasting. 2019, 35(2), pp. 540-554. ISSN 0169-2070. eISSN 1872-8200. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.09.010
This paper studies the quality of portfolio performance tests based on out-of-sample returns. By disentangling the components of the out-of-sample performance, we show that the observed differences are driven largely by the differences in estimation risk. Our Monte Carlo study reveals that the puzzling empirical findings of inferior performances of theoretically superior strategies result mainly from the low power of these tests. Thus, our results provide an explanation as to why the null hypothesis of equal performance of the simple equally-weighted portfolio compared to many theoretically-superior alternative strategies cannot be rejected in many out-of-sample horse races. Our findings turn out to be robust with respect to different designs and the implementation strategies of the tests.
For the applied researcher, we provide some guidance as to how to cope with the problem of low power. In particular, we make use of a novel pretest-based portfolio strategy to show how the information regarding performance tests can be used optimally. -
(2019): A joint quantile and expected shortfall regression framework Electronic Journal of Statistics. 2019, 13(1), pp. 1823-1871. eISSN 1935-7524. Available under: doi: 10.1214/19-EJS1560
We introduce a novel regression framework which simultaneously models the quantile and the Expected Shortfall (ES) of a response variable given a set of covariates. This regression is based on strictly consistent loss functions for the pair consisting of the quantile and the ES, which allow for M- and Z-estimation of the joint regression parameters. We show consistency and asymptotic normality for both estimators under weak regularity conditions. The underlying loss functions depend on two specification functions, whose choices affect the properties of the resulting estimators. We find that the Z-estimator is numerically unstable and thus, we rely on M-estimation of the model parameters. Extensive simulations verify the asymptotic properties and analyze the small sample behavior of the M-estimator for different specification functions. This joint regression framework allows for various applications including estimating, forecasting and backtesting ES, which is particularly relevant in light of the recent introduction of the ES into the Basel Accords. We illustrate this through two exemplary empirical applications in forecasting and forecast combination of the ES.
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(2019): Bewertungstransparenz im Referendariat Zeitschrift für Pädagogik. 2019, 65(3), pp. 378-400. ISSN 0514-2717. eISSN 0044-3247. Available under: doi: 10.3262/ZP1903378
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dc.contributor.author: Schölzel, Christian
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(2019): The long‐run effect of childhood poverty and the mediating role of education Journal of the Royal Statistical Society / Series A: Statistics in Society. 2019, 182(1), pp. 37-68. ISSN 0964-1998. eISSN 1467-985X. Available under: doi: 10.1111/rssa.12388
The paper examines the role of education as a causal channel through which growing up poor affects the economic outcomes in adulthood in the European Union. We apply a potential outcomes approach to quantify those effects and we provide a sensitivity analysis on possible unobserved confounders, such as child ability. Our estimates indicate that being poor in childhood significantly decreases the level of income in adulthood and increases the average probability of being poor. Moreover, our results reveal a significant role of education in this intergenerational transmission. These results are particularly relevant for Mediterranean and central and eastern European countries.
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(2019): Three Essays on Statistical Inference and Estimation for Heterogeneous Causal Effects in Economics
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dc.contributor.author: Heiler, Phillip Alexander
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Do differences in citizens' policy preferences hamper international cooperation in education policy? To gain comparative evidence on public preferences for education spending, we conduct representative experiments with information treatments in Switzerland using identical survey techniques previously used in Germany and the United States. In Switzerland, providing information about actual spending and salary levels reduces support for increased education spending from 54 to 40 percent and for increased teacher salaries from 27 to 19 percent, respectively. The broad patterns of education policy preferences are similar across the three countries when the role of status-quo and information are taken into account.
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(2019): Analytic continuations of log-exp-analytic germs Transactions of the American Mathematical Society (TRAN). 2019, 371(7), pp. 5203-5246. ISSN 0002-9947. eISSN 1088-6850. Available under: doi: 10.1090/tran/7748
We describe maximal, in a sense made precise, L-analytic continuations of germs at +∞ of unary functions definable in the o-minimal structure Ran,exp on the Riemann surface L of the logarithm. As one application, we give an upper bound on the logarithmic-exponential complexity of the compositional inverse of an infinitely increasing such germ, in terms of its own logarithmic-exponential complexity and its level. As a second application, we strengthen Wilkie’s theorem on definable complex analytic continuations of germs belonging to the residue field Rpoly of the valuation ring of all polynomially bounded definable germs.
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(2019): Research Productivity in Business Economics : A Reply German Economic Review. De Gruyter. 2019, 10(2), pp. 249-252. ISSN 1465-6485. eISSN 1468-0475. Available under: doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0475.2009.00469.x
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dc.contributor.author: Fabel, Oliver; Hein, Miriam
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(2019): Belastungserleben von angehenden Lehrpersonen der Sekundarstufe II in der Schweiz und in Deutschland HOLTSCH, Doreen, ed., Maren OEPKE, ed., Stephan SCHUMANN, ed.. Lehren und Lernen auf der Sekundarstufe II : gymnasial- und wirtschaftspädagogische Perspektiven : Festschrift anlässlich der Emeritierung von Prof. Dr. Franz Eberle. Bern: hep, der bildungsverlag, 2019, pp. 430-440. ISBN 978-3-0355-1538-1
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Dieses Buch vermittelt relevante Aspekte der Rechnungslegung in katholischen Bistümern. Deren wichtigste Einnahmequelle sind neben Staatsleistungen und Zuschüssen die Kirchensteuern. Zusätzlich zu ihrer Kernaufgabe, der Verkündigung des Evangeliums, leisten die Kirchen wichtige Beiträge für die Gemeinschaft. Doch der demographische Wandel und Kirchenaustritte wirken sich langfristig negativ auf die finanzielle Lage aus. Als wichtige Gegenmaßnahme gilt die Schaffung von mehr Transparenz: Wie die katholische Kirche ihr Rechnungswesen von der Kameralistik auf die Doppik umstellt, Jahresabschlüsse erstellt und veröffentlicht, zeigen die Beiträge in diesem Buch. Im Vordergrund stehen Ansatz und Bewertung, aber auch Umstellungsfragen und die Modernisierung der Governance-Strukturen. Die dargestellten Aspekte zur Rechnungslegung sind zumindest teilweise anwendbar für andere katholische Rechtsträger wie Bischöfliche Stühle, Domkapitel, Orden, Stiftungen und Kirchengemeinden sowie für Rechtsträger der evangelischen Kirche.
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(2019): Using Technology to Eliminate Traffic Congestion Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics. 2019, 175(1), pp. 140-143. ISSN 0932-4569. eISSN 1614-0559. Available under: doi: 10.1628/jite-2019-0013
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(2019): On the clock of the combinatorial clock auction Theoretical Economics. The Econometric Society. 2019, 14(4), pp. 1271-1307. ISSN 1933-6837. eISSN 1555-7561. Available under: doi: 10.3982/te3203
The combinatorial clock auction (CCA) has frequently been used in recent spectrum auctions. It combines a dynamic clock phase and a one‐off supplementary round. The winning allocation and the corresponding prices are determined by the Vickrey–Clarke–Groves rules. These rules should encourage truthful bidding, whereas the clock phase is intended to reveal information. We inquire into the role of the clock when bidders have lexicographic preferences for raising rivals' costs. We show that in an efficient equilibrium, the clock cannot fully reveal bidders' types. In the spirit of the ratchet effect, in the supplementary round competitors extract surplus from strong bidders whose type is revealed. We also show that if there is substantial room for information revelation, that is, if the uncertainty about the final allocation is large, all equilibria of the CCA are inefficient. Qualitative features of our equilibria are in line with evidence concerning bidding behavior in some recent CCAs.
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(2019): The Sustainability of the Dual System Approach to VET GUILE, David, ed., Lorna UNWIN, ed.. The Wiley Handbook of Vocational Education and Training. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley Blackwell, 2019, pp. 293-310. ISBN 978-1-119-09859-1
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(2019): Financial Market Misconduct and Public Enforcement : The Case of Libor Manipulation Management Science. 2019, 65(11), pp. 4951-5448. ISSN 0025-1909. eISSN 1526-5501. Available under: doi: 10.1287/mnsc.2018.3065
Using comprehensive data on London Interbank Offer Rate (Libor) submissions from 2001 through 2012, we provide evidence consistent with banks manipulating Libor to profit from Libor-related positions and to signal their creditworthiness during distressed times. Evidence of manipulation is stronger for banks that were eventually sanctioned by regulators and disappears for all banks in the aftermath of the Libor investigations that began in 2010. Our findings suggest that the threat of large penalties and the loss of reputation that accompany public enforcement can be effective in deterring financial market misconduct.
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(2019): Towards a model of professional competence of workplace trainers PILZ, Matthias, ed., Kathrin BREUING, ed., Stephan SCHUMANN, ed.. Berufsbildung zwischen Tradition und Moderne : Festschrift für Thomas Deißinger zum 60. Geburtstag. Wiesbaden: Springer VS, 2019, pp. 141-158. ISBN 978-3-658-24459-0. Available under: doi: 10.1007/978-3-658-24460-6_9
Workplace trainers, as the persons who plan and implement training for employees, are an essential factor for the success of training. However, the professional competence trainers might need to conduct effective training has not yet been systematically studied. Our contribution aims at giving an overview of existing studies on trainers’ professional competence and providing directions for future research. We conducted a literature review of empirical studies investigating aspects of trainers’ professional competence. Our review shows that there are numerous studies that are either investigating the professional competence of trainers in general or focusing on certain aspects of professional competence, such as designing a training. However, the studies must be regarded with respect to their contextual, methodological and conceptual heterogeneity. We argue for the need for a holistic model of the professional competence of trainers in order to be able to systematically analyse the relationship between different aspects of professional competence, training quality, and training outcomes. Existing models of the professional competence of school teachers, such as the model by Baumert and Kunter (2013), can provide a framework for building such a model.
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(2019): Inequality and the marriage gap Review of Economic Dynamics. 2019, 31, pp. 160-181. ISSN 1094-2025. eISSN 1096-6099. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.red.2018.06.004
Marriage is one of the most important determinants of economic prosperity, yet most existing theories of inequality ignore the role of the family. This paper documents that the distributions of earnings and wealth are highly concentrated, even when disaggregated into single and married households. At the same time, there is a large marriage gap: married people earn on average 26 percent more income, and they hold 35 percent more net worth. To account for these facts, I develop a general equilibrium model where females and males face uninsurable income risk and make decisions on consumption-savings, labor supply and marriage formation. In a calibrated version of the model, I show that selection into marriage based on productive characteristics, an effective tax bonus for married couples, and stronger bequest motives for households with descendants are key to accounting for the marriage gap in earnings and wealth. A policy experiment of moving from joint tax filing for married couples to separate filing yields output gains and more marital sorting.
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(2019): McPherson et al. (2001) : Birds of a Feather : Homophily in Social Networks HOLZER, Boris, ed., Christian STEGBAUER, ed.. Schlüsselwerke der Netzwerkforschung. Wiesbaden: Springer VS, 2019, pp. 399-402. ISBN 978-3-658-21741-9. Available under: doi: 10.1007/978-3-658-21742-6_92
Mertons Beitrag ist in dem von Lazarsfeld und Stanton herausgegebenen Sammelband Communications Research erschienen. Der Sammelband ist als Nachfolgeprojekt der zuvor zweimal erschienen Reihe Radio Research zu verstehen, in der Ergebnisse von Forschungsarbeiten unter der Federführung von Lazarsfeld zur Wirkung des Radios als Massenmedium vorgestellt werden. In Communications Research werden vor allem Erkenntnisse aus Studien präsentiert, die während und nach dem zweiten Weltkrieg vom Bureau of Applied Social Research der Columbia University durchgeführt wurden (Stanton und Lazarsfeld 1950).
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(2019): Europäische Integration wohin? : Zu Wirtschafts-, Finanz- und Geldpolitik sowie Reformen der EU
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